On Xianyu and Pinduoduo
On telling real from fake, I will not discuss — I personally find it of little meaning; rather than rely on your own discernment, choose to trust the channel. These days faking is too easy, and the standard keeps refining. Many people play fakes without sensing it at all — like some Hurricane Long 5/968. Often, by looks alone it is hard to tell. Some players send me directly to help look; I can only sigh at the superb faking standard. I generally do not reply. Just choose a seller you trust. Other discernment tricks look fun but are actually unreliable.
1
Xianyu and Pinduoduo widened the brands’ “rich-poor gap.” Big brands, with their own discussion and search traffic, also sell best on these two platforms. The relatively hot ones get hotter than before — like Butterfly’s Tenergy, Dignics, Stiga’s DNA line, XIOM’s Vega Platinum and Red V. Besides, there are those with some traffic and decent value, like Yinhe U2, Recter Yujian, LOKI Ruilong rubber. In sum, the originally hot products get more favored, classics get more sustained attention, and obscure products struggle to show their face. So big brands more easily make money, small brands struggle, unless they can stir some traffic and get noticed. Besides, a few low-price products have some survival room.
2
The most profitable are first the platforms themselves, then the big brands, followed by fake sellers and some distributors. The platforms, never mind — Xianyu raised commissions now. Platforms have various money-making schemes we do not understand. Big brands — though regular distributors make less than before, because profits dropped (like Butterfly official-import distributors). But for the big brands themselves, at least sales are no problem. Official-import distributors, facing price competition, inevitably see thinner profits. Actually, two years ago, Butterfly’s China branch was already considering whether to open the market — not limiting prices so high, not restricting cross-city sales. But the market changed faster than imagined. Now the mass entry of Japanese-version products has ever-growing impact. Now online and offline are two markets, facing almost different customer groups. And Japanese-version and official-import customer groups will diverge ever more. For brand HQ, this is no big issue. For the branch, it is a hard problem. For consumers, platforms do bring some convenience and benefits — gear swaps can be more convenient and cheaper. But some distributors started sourcing from Pinduoduo to sell — an interesting scene.
3
Pinduoduo’s squeeze on the second-hand market. Since brand-new things got cheaper, second-hand buyers naturally decreased. Look at Butterfly second-hand rubber’s fast-dropping traffic on Xianyu and you understand. Now many wait for Pinduoduo coupons to drop, for a deal. Second-hand product value naturally drops further, with fewer buyers. But ultimately, as long as a product is relatively hot, it still sells — just a pricing issue. The hardest are products with no traffic. Some are great value, some are nice things, but hardly even get a chance to show their face.
4
With easier transactions and lower deal prices, the gear-nerd ranks swell. The gear-nerd way is not necessarily chasing better technical performance — it may just be “playing with toys.” But what follows is surely frequent market-hotspot turnover and further second-hand price drops. Because products are too many, and ever more. In sharp contrast may be those Butterfly customs, limiteds and other “rare-is-precious” blades, whose prices naturally rise. But interestingly, fewer people pay. People are no longer as keen on these as before. Maybe a few reasons: one, prices really are sky-high, and reselling later is a hassle too. Two, many players using retail play very well — customs and limiteds may not have how superb a showing. Three, many feel it is just a toy; they like more toys, not a single better toy. For me, buying these customs and limiteds is now almost gone. On one hand, blade-repair standards really are too high now, and some accounts specially collect old customs then repair and sell high, so I now dare not buy second-hand customs and limiteds, unless from a trusted friend. On the other, what blade suits me is fairly clear now. Years ago, I might have been very interested in the Boll ZLC Limited or some player issues, but understanding more, some actually do not suit me, and the trial-and-error cost is too high.